Spaces for Agreement: A Theory of Time-Stochastic Dominance and an Application to Climate Change
研究提出一种结合随机占优和时间占优的非参数方法，寻找不同偏好下投资决策的共识空间，并应用于气候变化模型，发现严格的碳排放目标几乎被所有人接受。
Many investments involve both a long time horizon and risky returns. Making investment decisions thus requires assumptions about time and risk preferences. Such assumptions are frequently contested, particularly in the public sector, and there is no immediate prospect of universal agreement. Motivated by these observations, we develop a theory and method of finding “spaces for agreement.” These are combinations of classes of discount and utility function, for which one investment dominates another (or “almost” does so), so that all those whose preferences can be represented by such combinations would agree on the option to choose. The theory combines the insights of stochastic dominance and time dominance and offers a nonparametric approach to intertemporal, risky choice. We then apply the theory to climate change and show using a popular simulation model that even tough carbon emissions targets would be chosen by almost everyone, barring those with arguably “extreme” preferences.