‘Fiasco prime ministers’: leaders’ beliefs and personality traits as possible causes for policy fiascos
本文挑战政策惨败的主流结构性解释，通过分析英国首相的演讲文本，发现那些遭遇重大外交政策惨败的首相确实具有更极端的自信等人格特质和更倾向冲突策略的政治信念，提示公共政策分析应更多考虑决策者个体因素。
Against the predominantly structural explanations of policy fiascos in the public policy literature, this contribution questions whether idiosyncrasies of individual decision-makers should be considered as alternative sources of foreign policy fiascos. The contribution uses the leadership trait approach and the operational code approach from the field of foreign policy analysis (FPA) to discern the personality traits and political beliefs respectively of British prime ministers who ended up with major foreign policy fiascos. The computer-aided content analysis of more than 900 speech acts shows that British ‘fiasco prime ministers’ do indeed exhibit certain ‘extreme’ personality traits (e.g., a considerably higher level of self-confidence) and political beliefs (e.g., a greater inclination to pursue conflictual strategies) that distinguish them from British ‘non-fiasco prime ministers’ and other world leaders. This suggests that the public policy literature might benefit from allowing for a greater role of individual decision-makers in their analyses of policy fiascos.