A Change of Mind or a Change of Focus? A Theory of Choice Reversals in Politics<xref ref-type="fn" rid="fn1"><sup>*</sup></xref>
本文提出选择反转的第三种解释:偏好是多维的,决策情境变化会导致注意力突然转移,从而引起选择不一致,而非偏好不稳定或非理性。
Most models of choice treat decisions as if they occur but once. But people are continually making choices, and often they are asked to make similar choices at different times. It is not unusual to find choice reversals, in which a choice made at one time is reversed at another. Even if choice reversals do not occur, because exactly similar choices seldom recur, great inconsistencies in choice across time are readily observable. To explain such inconsistencies, it seems that we must postulate either a rapid change in preferences or irrationality (not making a choice based on one's preferences). This article explores a third alternative: that preferences are multidimensional, and that attentiveness to preferences can shift abruptly as the decisional context changes. Shifts in attentiveness, rather than instability in preferences or irrationality, often account for choice inconsistencies. Great inconsistencies in choice may result from fluctuating attention. Herbert Simon