THE LONG‐TERM EFFECTS OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS ON CHILD LABOR AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
构建动态异质性代理模型并用巴西数据校准，模拟类似Bolsa Família的政策，发现其大幅提高小学完成率、将童工比例从22%降至17%，但短期内因转移不足以覆盖教育成本而增加童工。
This paper investigates the long‐term effects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Família . Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare.