A Market for Lemons in Serial Entrepreneurship? Exploring Type I and Type II Errors in the Restart Decision
利用丹麦1980-2007年所有初创和重启企业的纵向数据，发现连续创业中存在柠檬市场，即低质量企业主导市场，这是由于重启决策中的第二类错误（不应重启却重启）导致，而第一类错误（应重启却不重启）则相反。
Extant literatures on serial and habitual entrepreneurship contain inconclusive findings about the differential impact of learning from success and failure. Yet, there are no published studies combining both the restart decision and restart performance after previous failure or success with a first venture. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset of all one-time starts and restarts in Denmark from 1980 to 2007, we discovered the existence of a market for lemons in serial entrepreneurship. First introduced by Akerlof (1970), the market for lemons refers to a market in which low-quality products come to dominate. In serial entrepreneurship, this occurs due to Type II errors in the restart phenomenon. Type I error occurs when a potential entrepreneur endowed with the human and social capital necessary for restart success does not start a second venture. Type II error refers to the opposite and forms the basis for the market for lemons in serial entrepreneurship. Based on our empirical findings, we develop new theory relating these two types of errors to errors in learning attributions resulting in overconfidence bias and thereby impacting performance.