The Problem of the Persistent Hog Price Cycle: A Chaotic Solution
指出传统模型无法有效预测生猪价格周期，提出通过调整模型纳入确定性非线性过程（混沌动力学）来提高预测精度，从而降低反周期生产成本并可能消除周期波动。
Abstract A persistent hog‐corn price ratio has been known to exist since the early 1930s and many attempts have been made since then to model its dynamics. That these models have been ineffectual as forecasting tools is apparent by the fact that the hog cycle has persisted to this day. In this paper I propose that increased forecasting accuracy can be obtained by adjusting traditional forecasting models so that they account for deterministic, nonlinear processes. With improved forecasts, the costs of countercyclical production will decrease, dampening and perhaps even eliminating the cycle. The chaotic dynamics of the hog‐corn price cycle is confirmed, and chaotic models of this system are developed. The analysis provides the framework for developing a function to forecast the dynamics of the hog‐corn price ratio.