Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach
提出一种空间Probit模型，用于分析因变量为二元响应且状态转换发生在不同时间点时的截面单元间交互效应，并以58个国家1985-2008年采纳通胀目标制的实证研究为例。
Summary This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross‐sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable and transitions from state 0 to 1 occur at different moments in time. The model has two spatially lagged variables: one for units that are still in state 0 and one for units that had already transferred to state 1. The parameters are estimated on observations for those units that are still in state 0 at the start of the different time periods, whereas observations on units after they transferred to state 1 are discarded, just as in the literature on duration modeling. Furthermore, neighboring units that had not yet transferred may have a different impact from units that had already transferred. We illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the adoption of inflation targeting for a sample of 58 countries over the period 1985–2008. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.