Forecast-driven model for prepositioning supplies in preparation for a foreseen hurricane
提出一个利用国家飓风中心每6小时发布的预报信息，动态决策物资预置地点、数量及启动时机的模型，帮助人道主义工作者应对飓风。
In this paper, we present a forecast-driven dynamic model for prepositioning relief items in preparation for a foreseen hurricane. Our model uses forecast advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which are issued every 6 h. Every time a new advisory is issued with updated information, our model determines the amount and location of units to be prepositioned and it also re-prepositions already prepositioned units. The model also determines the best time for starting the prepositioning activities. Our approach uses a combination of Decision Theory and stochastic programming. The outcomes of our model are presented in a way that could be easily understood by humanitarian practitioners who are ultimately the ones who would use and apply our model.