Germany and the World Economy: A Round Table Discussion
本文是一场圆桌讨论，德国代表解释其财政紧缩和货币紧缩政策如何控制通胀并促进增长，而批评者认为紧缩导致失业，呼吁德国扩张以缓解全球失衡。
Germany and the world economy A round table discussion led by Gerhard Fels and Hans-Peter Froehlich Many countries, most notably the US, have called for a German expansion. To date, Germany has not acceded to these requests, and Fels and Froehlich set out the German position. They argue that large budget deficits in 1980–82, and the consequent increase in the debt burden, left little alternative to a strategy of fiscal consolidation. Any contractionary effect on demand may have been more than offset by the favourable effect on private sector expectations. The result of this fiscal austerity, coupled with a tight monetary policy, has been a moderation of inflation and, after an initial recession, a period of sustained growth. Any German fiscal expansion would push world real interest rates even higher, but would do little to improve the US current account. Further, Germany's strongly counterinflationary policies have been an important factor in the success of the EMS. Some easing of the fiscal stance might occur were the US to come to grips with its own deficit problems. A reduction of the tax burden and a removal of trade barriers remain the best policies to sustain medium-term growth. Germany's critics remained unconvinced. Olivier Blanchard argued that the German recovery falls well short of that required to restore full employment, and that the fiscal contraction of 1982-85 was unwarranted by the existing levels of deficits and debt. There was little evidence that the laws of economics had been repealed and that fiscal austerity had actually fostered expansion in Germany. From a European perspective, Marcus Miller noted that German austerity had helped underpin the anti-inflation policy of EMS countries. However, the twin pressures of a tightening US fiscal policy and a falling and more competitive dollar would require a deliberate and concerted European policy expansion if yet higher unemployment was to be avoided in Europe. A German U-turn was especially desirable at this particular juncture.