Separating Bayesian Updating from Non-Probabilistic Reasoning: An Experimental Investigation
通过彩色卡片决策任务分别测量贝叶斯更新和非概率推理能力，并首次将其应用于共同价值荷兰式拍卖，发现两种能力及拍卖格式的显著性均有助于纠正赢家诅咒。
Through a series of decision tasks involving colored cards, we provide separate measures of Bayesian updating and non-probabilistic reasoning skills. We apply these measures to (and are the first to study) a common-value Dutch auction. This format is more salient than the strategically equivalent first-price auction and silent Dutch formats in hinting that one should condition one's estimate of the value on having the highest bid. Both Bayesian updating skills and non-probabilistic reasoning skills are shown to help subjects correct for the winner's curse, as does the saliency of the active-clock Dutch format.