The Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty
研究了企业在面对国家特定生产成本冲击时，选择出口还是通过外国子公司销售来服务外国市场的决策。模型预测，产出波动相关性较低的国家之间贸易相对子公司销售更多，而波动较大的国家则更多依赖出口。
In this paper we analyze the firm’s choice between serving a foreign market through exports or through foreign affiliate sales in an environment characterized by country-specific shocks to the cost of production. Our model predicts that country pairs with less correlated output fluctuations trade more, relative to affiliate sales, while countries with more volatile fluctuations are served relatively more by exporters than by foreign affiliates selling abroad. Using detailed data on trade and affiliate sales, we find empirical support for our model’s predictions. We would like to thank the editors, two anonymous referees, Yona Rubinstein, and participants at various conferences and seminars for helpful comments. We would also like to thank Raymond Mataloni, Stephen Yeaple, and William Zeile for their help with the multinational affiliate data. Ramondo thanks the Peter B. Kenen fellowship from the International