Reducing Unwelcome Surprises in Project Management
研究如何减少项目中的“未知未知”意外，通过建模子系统、情景分析、检查清单和数据挖掘等方法，将可预知的未知转化为已知风险。
How can managers reduce the number of “unknown unknowns” a project faces? Even projects that employ sophisticated techniques for risk management can encounter surprising derailments. But new research shows that modeling a project’s subsystems helps expose risk areas. So, too, can scenario analysis, the use of checklists and data mining. “Directed recognition, which can entail both project design and behavioral approaches, can convert knowable unk-unks [unknown unknowns] to known unknowns,” write the authors.