The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?
重新审视美国通胀与失业的关系，发现菲利普斯曲线依然存在但斜率下降，通胀预期更稳定，残差标准误较大，给货币政策带来挑战。
This paper reexamines the behavior of inflation and unemployment and reaches four conclusions: 1) The U.S. Phillips curve is alive and well (at least as well as in the past). 2) Inflation expectations however have become steadily more anchored. 3) The slope of the curve has substantially declined. But the decline dates back to the 1980s rather than to the crisis. 4) The standard error of the residual in the relation is large, especially in comparison to the low level of inflation. Each of the four conclusions presents challenges for the conduct of monetary policy.