Immigration and Welfare Support in Germany
作者研究了移民对德国本地居民福利支持态度的影响。以往跨国研究多使用横截面数据并聚焦全国层面，存在方法缺陷。作者利用1994-2010年德国个体与区域面板数据，同时考察横截面和纵向效应。结果发现，区域内外国人比例上升时，本地人对福利项目的支持意愿降低；这种效应在移民初期尤其强烈，且受经济环境调节：失业率越高，外国人比例对本地人福利态度的负面作用越明显。
In recent years, several international-comparative studies have analyzed the relationship between migration and native populations’ decreasing support for redistributive policies. However, these studies use cross-sectional designs and aggregate the number of foreign-born residents at the national level. Both aspects are theoretically and methodologically problematic. We address these shortcomings by investigating cross-sectional as well as longitudinal effects in the case of Germany, using a combination of individual- and regional-level data for several time points from 1994 to 2010. Our results suggest that native-born populations become more reluctant to support welfare programs when the proportion of foreigners at the regional level increases. This effect is particularly strong in the initial phase of immigration, and it is further moderated by the economic context: the higher the unemployment rate, the more negative is the effect of foreigners on natives’ attitude toward providing welfare.