Combining Labour Force Survey Data to Estimate Migration Flows: The Case of Migration from Poland to The UK
利用波兰和英国的劳动力调查数据，通过贝叶斯模型估算2004年欧盟东扩后波兰到英国的移民流量，并结合欧洲移民综合模型验证其他估计结果。
Summary In May 2004, Poland and seven other countries from central and eastern Europe joined the European Union. This led to a massive emigration from Poland, especially to the UK. However, relatively little is known about the magnitude of migration flows after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. In the paper Labour Force Survey data from the sending and receiving countries are utilized in a Bayesian model to estimate migration flows. The estimates are further combined with the output of the ‘Integrated modelling of European migration’ model. The combined results with accompanying measures of uncertainty can be used to validate other reported estimates of migration flows from Poland to the UK.