The ethics of intergenerational risk
在不确定世界中评估代际分配，提出参考依赖效用标准，兼顾事前与事后公平，并揭示灭绝风险和技术风险对社会贴现率的相反影响。
This paper addresses the evaluation of intergenerational allocations in an uncertain world. It axiomatically characterizes a class of criteria, named reference-dependent utilitarian, that assess allocations relative to a stochastic reference. The characterized criteria combine social concerns for ex-ante equity—capturing the idea that generations should be treated equitably before risk is resolved—and for ex-post fairness—capturing the idea that generations should be treated equitably after risk is resolved. Social discounting is endogenous and is governed by two opposite forces: extinction risk pushes society to reduce the weight on future generations, while (uninsurable) technological risk pushes society to increase the weight on future generations.