Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets
针对农产品期权长期合约交易稀少的问题，提出一个包含现货价格均值回归和季节性修正的期权定价模型，并在大豆市场得到实证支持。
Options on agricultural commodities with maturities exceeding one year seldom trade. One possible reason to explain this lack of trading is that we do not have an accurate option pricing model for products where mean reversion in spot‐price levels can be expected. Standard option pricing models assume proportionality between price variance and time to maturity. This proportionality is not a valid assumption for commodities whose supply response brings prices back to production costs. The model proposed here incorporates mean reversion in spot‐price levels and includes a correction for seasonality. Mean reversion and seasonality are both observed in the soybean market. The empirical analysis lends strong support to the model.