Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment
通过分析军人是否选择再入伍,估算出失业率每上升1个百分点,工人愿意牺牲1.5%-2%的收入来避免。研究发现,非工作时间和转移支付等因素只能抵消不到三分之一的收入损失。
This paper provides revealed preference estimates of the monetary value to workers of a lower unemployment rate at the time of job separation. By examining the decision between reenlisting and exiting the military, we find that service members would sacrifice 1.5–2 percent in earnings to avoid a 1 percentage point increase in the home-state unemployment rate during job search. Comparing these quantities to realized earnings losses for those who separate suggests that the value of nonwork time and other factors (e.g., private and public transfers) offset less than one-third of the earnings losses caused by exiting the military into a weak labor market.