Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis
面对核恐怖主义、超级病毒、气候变化等多种潜在灾难，社会应选择避免哪些？本文指出，由于灾难之间存在政策相互依赖，简单的成本效益分析会失效，并提出一个规则来决定哪些灾难应被避免。
Faced with numerous potential catastrophes—nuclear and bioterrorism, mega-viruses, climate change, and others—which should society attempt to avert? A policy to avert one catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in cost-benefit terms. But because society faces multiple catastrophes, simple cost-benefit analysis fails: even if the benefit of averting each one exceeds the cost, we should not necessarily avert them all. We explore the policy interdependence of catastrophic events, and develop a rule for determining which catastrophes should be averted and which should not.