The Returns to College Persistence for Marginal Students: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from University Dismissal Policies
利用大学根据GPA阈值开除低分学生的政策，通过断点回归估计坚持读大学对收入的影响，发现被开除短期增加收入但长期损失更大，坚持读大学8年后内部回报率为4.1%。
We estimate the returns to college using administrative data on both college enrollment and earnings. Exploiting that colleges dismiss low-performing students on the basis of exact GPA cutoffs, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the earnings impacts of college. Dismissal leads to a short-run increase in earnings and tuition savings, but the future fall in earnings is sufficiently large that 8 years after dismissal, persisting students have already recouped their up-front investment with an internal rate of return of 4.1%. We provide a variety of evidence that manipulation of the running variable does not drive our results.