A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS
提出一种新方法，通过最小化事件前后经济交易模式的信息增益，预测破坏性事件对区域间和产业间的影响，并验证了需求、供给和空间替代效应的合理性。
ABSTRACT This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre‐ and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces, as it should, the pre‐event market equilibrium. The methodology is tested further by means of a comparison of this base scenario with two regional production shock scenarios and two interregional trade shock scenarios. The outcomes show a plausible combination of partially compensating demand, supply, and spatial substitution effects, which justifies the further development, testing, and application of this new approach.