Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods
用分位数回归方法研究美国政府支出冲击对宏观经济活动的非线性影响，发现财政政策对产出条件分布低分位数的效应更大，而高政府支出仅在失业率最高十分位时显著降低失业。
We estimate nonlinear effects of government spending shocks on US macroeconomic activity using quantile regression methods. This amounts to allowing regression parameters to depend on how far output or the unemployment rate are from their means, conditional on past explanatory variables. Applying quantile methods to vector autoregressions and local projections as an alternative way to estimate impulse response functions, we find the output effects of fiscal policy to be notably larger for lower quantiles of the conditional output distribution. Conversely, higher government spending appears to lower the rate of unemployment considerably only at its highest deciles.