On the newsvendor model with conditional Value-at-Risk of opportunity loss
将条件风险值(CVaR)引入报童模型,研究最小化机会损失时的最优订货量,发现当缺货损失大于积压损失时,最优订货量随置信水平递增,且风险规避反而可能导致过度订货。
To manage the risk arising from uncertainty in market demand, this paper introduces the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measure into the decision framework of the newsvendor who aims to minimise his opportunity loss. It is found under the CVaR measure that the newsvendor's optimal order quantity is increasing in the confidence level when the understock loss is bigger than the overstock loss. This implies that an over-ordering may be even more caused by the newsvendor's risk aversion about opportunity loss than risk seeking behaviour. Under this optimal order quantity, it is proved that the newsvendor's expected profit and expected opportunity loss are decreasing and increasing in the confidence level, respectively. Furthermore, some management insights are presented to facilitate the risk management of the newsvendor model.