Toward an Understanding of Causality Between Advertising and Sales: New Evidence from a Multivariate Cointegrated System
本文利用三十多年的时间序列数据，研究两个成熟品牌（碳酸软饮料和无烟烟草）的广告与销售之间的因果关系，发现长期中两者受经济环境影响而同步变动，且销售对广告存在单向因果关系。
This article explores the nature of causality between advertising and sales for two mature brands in different industries (carbonated soft drinks and smokeless tobacco) using more than three decades of time series data. The empirical results suggest that advertising and sales for both brands move in tandem over the long term, but only when controlling for economic climate. The results further imply that for Brand CSD (carbonated soft drinks), advertising and sales appear causally unrelated in the short run, while significant one-way causality exists from sales to advertising in the long run. This suggests that advertising investments over the long term are dependent on sales revenues, opposite to what is commonly perceived. A similar advertising policy may be in place over the short term for Brand T (tobacco). The analysis extends prior research by revisiting the “advertising or sales” assessment using current data from mature industries. We contend that advertising expenditures are subject to change based on sales volume in slow-growth industries.