The Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: Evidence of Systematic Optimism and Pessimism
研究1983-86年间分析师对每股收益的预测，发现虽然整体上分析师预测准确性无显著差异，但个体分析师相对于共识预测存在持续的乐观或悲观倾向。
O'Brien [1990] examines the annual earnings forecast accuracy of individual analysts reporting to the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (IBES) of Lynch, Jones and Ryan during July 1975-September 1982. Using a regression model which adjusts for average firm and year effects, O'Brien finds no evidence of differential forecast accuracy. Comparing individual analysts' earnings forecasts to median consensus forecasts during 1983-86, we also find no statistically significant evidence of differential analyst forecast accuracy. Our result, however, does not mean that one analyst's forecasts are much like another's. We find that analysts are persistently optimistic or pessimistic relative to consensus forecasts. We examine this persistent behavior and its effect on measures of forecast accuracy over a sample