TOWER BUILDING AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS
研究发现美国摩天大楼开工量能预测后续股票市场回报，其预测能力优于历史均值、股息率等传统指标，可能反映过度乐观或低风险溢价时期。
Abstract Construction starts of skyscrapers predict subsequent U.S. stock returns. The predictive ability exceeds that of alternatives such as the prevailing historical mean, predictions based on dividend ratios, and recently suggested combination forecasts. One explanation for these patterns is that tower building is indicative of overoptimism; alternatively, tower building could help identify periods of low risk premia. I present indirect evidence that is consistent with both explanations.