A Multivariate Analysis of Loss Reserving Estimates in Property-Liability Insurers
检验了外生经济发展和平滑行为是否显著影响汽车责任保险的损失准备金误差，发现准备金误差确实稳定了报告承保结果，且利率和未预期通胀等经济因素与误差显著相关，对监管者和股东评估保险公司绩效有参考价值。
This article tests the hypotheses that exogenous economic developments and smoothing activity significantly affect loss reserving errors in the automobile liability insurance line. A sample of sixteen large automobile liability insurers is analyzed using pooled, cross-section time series regression for the period 1955-1975. The results indicate that loss reserving errors do stabilize reported underwriting results and that exogenous economic factors such as interest rates and unanticipated inflation are significantly related to loss reserving errors for the sample insurers. These findings can be used by regulators and stockholders to evaluate insurer performance more meaningfully.