Predictability of Individual Health Care Expenditures
研究发现个人年度短期医疗支出差异中最多20%可预测，这对按人头付费的医保支付设计有参考价值。
It is widely believed in both academic and political circles that direct, uniform capitation payments to health insurers may induce them to contain costs. The premiumreplacing capitation payments should account for predictable variations in individual health care expenditures. This article describes a model that encompasses and rejects several previous models that have been proposed for analyzing these variations. The results indicate that, at most, 20 percent of the variance among individuals in annual, short-term health care expenditures is predictable.