A Study of ERISA's Impact on Private Retirement Plan Growth
通过时间序列干预模型分析ERISA对私人退休计划数量的影响，发现其严格监管在短期和长期均显著抑制了新计划设立并增加了终止数量，且对养老金计划的冲击大于利润分享计划。
Time series intervention models are constructed to assess ERISA's impact on the number of private retirement plans. Four growth indicator variables (number of pension plan terminations, profit-sharing plan terminations, pension plan qualifications, and profit-sharing plan qualifications) are analyzed and ERISA's short-term, long-term and differential effects on these four variables are discussed. The empirical analysis supports three major conclusions. First, the uncertainty created by the more rigorous regulatory mandate caused a substantial and immediate short-term adverse impact on private retirement plan growth; it resulted in large temporary increases in the number of plan terminations, and large reductions in the number of new plan formations. Second, ERISA's short-term impact on the number of pension plan formations was larger than its impact on the formation of profit-sharing plans. This finding provides some support for the premise that ERISA's regulations discriminate against defined benefit pension plans. Third, in addition to its very substantial short-term impact, ERISA's more stringent regulations, which disallow marginally beneficial plans, also caused a significant long-term reduction in the level of new plan qualifications.