The Much Greater Profitability of New York Workers' Compensation Risks with Higher Modifications
研究发现纽约州工伤险中，高经验修正因子与低标准保费损失率高度相关，解释了为何该数据与其他州研究结果不同，对承保决策有重要影响。
The two main purposes of this paper are, first, to present data which shows that, in New York State, there is a very high correlation between higher experience modifications and lower standard premium loss ratios in the period to which the experience modifications apply and, second, to offer an explantion of why this data is so different from data in the study of several other states conducted by the National Council on Compensation Insurance. It is pointed out that the relationship between experience modifications and profitability can influence underwriting decisions. A workers' compensation experience modification is the factor used to adjust an insured's standard premium to reflect actual loss experience in the three-year period ending one year prior to the effective date of the policy to which the experience modification applies. In late 1981, at the New York Compensation Insurance Rating Board, a computer program was run to test whether New York workers' compensation experience modifications, based on past years' experience, are a good indicator of a risk's losses during the current year. It would have been interesting to track the experience of the same risk for more than just the first year after each experience modification, but the computer data base would not permit this. The results were surprising. This study of 52,769 risks, with over $833 million in standard premiums, did not show any correlation between experience modification factors and loss ratios based on manual premiums1. (This result does not preclude some slight correlation if a sufficiently larger number of risks were studied, but it is evident from the results that any correlation based on manual factors is very small.) There is, however, a very high correlation between higher experience modification factors and higher