Subjective Prior Probability Distributions and Audit Risk
研究审计师在贝叶斯决策模型中主观先验概率分布的极端性和校准性，发现审计师的概率分布存在校准偏差，对审计风险研究有参考价值。
Bayesian models of the auditor's decision process (e.g., Bailey and Jensen [1977], Kinney [1975], and Scott [1973; 1975]) incorporate subjective beliefs formalized as prior probability distributions (PPDs). Recent studies by Solomon [1982] and Tomassini et al. [1982] investigated two conformance properties of auditors' account balance PPDs: extremeness and calibration. PPD extremeness is measured over a sequence of elicitation trials by computing the average subjective probability assigned to intervals containing the auditees' actual account values and, as such, can be viewed as a measure of predictive ability (see Seaver, von Winterfeldt, and Edwards [1978]). Calibration, in turn, is a measure of the ability to express an appropriate degree of confidence in such subjective estimates.1 Both the Solomon [1982] and Tomassini et al. [1982] studies reported that auditors' PPDs were miscalibrated and that there was