What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?
将管理层盈利预测分解为宏观和公司特定成分，发现龙头企业预测在盈利公告时提供及时的宏观经济信息，且坏消息和点预测的宏观信息更显著。
ABSTRACT We decompose quantitative management earnings forecasts into macroeconomic and firm‐specific components to determine the extent to which voluntary disclosure provided by management has macroeconomic information content. We provide evidence that the forecasts of bellwether firms, which are defined as firms in which macroeconomic news explains the greatest amount of variation in the forecasts, provide timely information to the market about the macroeconomy when bundled with earnings announcements. Further, we show that bellwether firms provide timely information about both industry‐specific events and broader economic events. Finally, we document that the macroeconomic news in individual forecasts is more pronounced for bad news and point forecasts.