Life Changes and the Continuity of Rank: An Alternative Interpretation of Mobility Magnitudes over the Life Cycle
提出一种替代地位获得模型的方法，通过关注机会（即等级结果的概率分布）和等级相关性，重新解释社会流动数据，发现流动比以往认为的更少。
This paper presents an alternative to status attainment modeling of cycles, originally proposed by Blau and Duncan (1967). Statistically, the paper describes a new way of representing causal chains, which is less complex, and more easily comprehended and communicated. Conceptually, it proposes a focus on chances, defined as the probability distribution over hierarchical outcomes. Life chances order a population or cohort from most advantaged to least. For each cycle stage there is a distinct rank. The transitions between stages reshuffle ranks. The correlation of successive rankings measures mobility/immobility, which was not directly assessed in the classical treatment. The life chances perspective recasts the original data as a sequence of correlations describing the degree of change in social rank. This leads to a substantive reinterpretation, that mobility is much less prevalent than it previously appeared.