The Predictability of Interim Earnings over Alternative Quarters
研究分析师和时间序列模型对第一至第四季度每股收益的预测准确性差异，发现第四季度预测难度显著不同，并探讨了报告方法的影响。
This study examines the predictability of earnings per share for the first, second, third and fourth quarterly reporting periods. Forecasts of quarterly earnings per share both by security analysts and time-series models are analyzed. The next section of the paper deals with the question of whether there is a significant difference in the accuracy with which each quarter can be forecasted. The data in this section strongly indicate that such a difference exists. The third section explores explanations for the findings of section 2. These include the relationship between fourthquarter variability and the integral (versus) discrete reporting methods.' Section 4 contains the summary and conclusions.