Forecasting the Effects of an Aging Population on Product Consumption: An Age-Period-Cohort Framework
提出一种利用队列分析估计年龄、时期和队列成员对消费影响的方法，以咖啡消费为例，证明队列预测比传统横截面预测更准确，适用于预测消费及其他行为态度。
A method of forecasting the effects of changing age distributions and cohort succession on product consumption is presented. Cohort analysis is used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort membership on consumption. Recent developments in cohort analysis are reviewed and a study of coffee consumption reported. The forecasts differ from traditional cross-sectional forecasts and in some cases predict changes opposite in directionality. The cohort forecasts are shown to be more accurate than cross-sectional forecasts in the coffee study. The method is not limited to forecasting product consumption, but can be used in forecasting other behaviors, attitudes, and opinions.