Some Evidence on the Reliability of Variance as a Proxy for Risk
通过实验数据检验方差和变异系数作为风险代理指标的有效性，探讨个体在不确定选择中是否实际使用这些指标，对风险决策研究者和从业者有参考价值。
While the development of alternative measures of risk has received considerable theoretical attention (Hadar and Russell [5], Hanoch and Levy [6], Rothschild and Stiglitz [13]), use of either variance or the coefficient of variation as a proxy for risk remains widespread in applied work and in pedagogical practice (Hawawini [7], Pappas and Brigham [10]). It is important to test the proposition that individuals behave as if they were using one of these measures when making choices among uncertain prospects. Several experimental studies in psychology have attempted to determine whether variance is an important factor in the choice among small gambles,' but no study has addressed the question of whether variance might be useful as a predictor of the premium that an individual will pay to avoid a risk. In a recent experiment on preference reversal (Reilly [12]), data bearing on this question were collected. This paper presents the evidence obtained. Section II describes the manner in which the data were collected and presents the model used as a basis for the test; Section III provides the results and conclusion.