Infectious diseases, human capital and economic growth
构建了一个包含传染病动态的一般均衡模型，解释各国在收入、人力资本和传染病发病率上的分化，发现疾病流行程度决定人力资本积累和经济增长，并分析了最优公共健康政策及补贴的逆向效应。
Stylized facts show there is a clustering of countries in three balanced growth paths characterized by differing income/growth, human capital and incidence of infectious diseases. To explain this, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating SIS epidemiology dynamics, where households choose how much to invest in human and physical capital, as well as in controlling the risk of infection. In the decentralized economy, households do not internalize the externality of controlling infection. There are multiple balanced growth paths where the endogenous prevalence of the disease determines whether human capital is accumulated or not, i.e., whether there is sustained economic growth or a poverty trap. We characterize the optimal public health policy that internalizes the disease externality and the subsidy that decentralizes it. Perversely, for countries in a poverty trap and most afflicted with diseases, the optimal subsidy is lower than for growing economies. We also study the quantitative effects of better control of diseases, and of increasing life expectancy on countries in a poverty trap.