Interdependence Revisited: A Developing Countries Perspective on Macroeconomic Management and Trade Policy in the Industrial World
构建理论实证模型，分析发达国家宏观经济与贸易政策如何通过实际利率和相对价格影响发展中国家福利，模拟发现财政扩张和保护主义对发展中国家造成双重打击。
The North-South connection Sweder van Wijnbergen How do macroeconomic and trade policies in the industrialized world affect the welfare of the less developed countries? This paper develops a theoretical and empirical model of the world economy to address these issues. It differs from conventional economic models in its focus on the role of real interest rates and relative prices rather than the level of demand. Two policy simulations are carried out with the model. The first looks at the effect of an increase in OECD budget deficits on the less developed countries. The less developed countries suffer doubly because the fiscal expansion in the developed countries not only raises real interest rates, but also reduces the relative price of the goods produced by the less developed countries. An increase in protectionism in the industrialized countries also hits the developing countries twice: again, the relative price of their export goods falls whilst the real interest rate at which they borrow rises. The welfare effects are significant. A scenario in which industrial countries levy a 10% tariff on developing country exports and OECD budget deficits are $75 billion higher by 1989 would raise the real interest rate by more than 4 percentage points and reduce by 1.4 percentage points the average rate of growth of the developing countries in the late 1980s.