When the Data Source Writes the Conclusion: Evaluating Agricultural Policies
以卢旺达农业部门为例，发现联合国粮农组织数据声称改革后产量增长60%，但其他数据集显示增长更温和，差异源于收集困难与高估产量的激励。
Statistics describe realities, but they also shape them, since they are used to design or support policies. As such accurate statistics are important. Using the agricultural sector in Rwanda as a case study, we demonstrate that dubious statistics can spread quickly. According to data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), yields have increased by 60 per cent since the implementation of large scale agricultural reforms, while other datasets point towards more modest gains. Yet, estimates in line with those of the FAO dominate the official discourse. We suggest that the discrepancies between datasets may be explained by the difficulties of collecting accurate agricultural statistics combined with an incentive to overestimate yields to show that the reforms have worked.