Book-to-Market and the Cross-Section ofExpected Returns in International Stock Markets
研究了国际股票市场中账面市值比的来源（账面权益和价格的历史变化）能否提高预期收益的估计，发现近期变化比远期变化更有效，且账面权益变化比价格变化更能预测预期收益。
Individual stocks’ expected return estimates are a key input for equity selection models. A 2008 study by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French found evidence that past changes in book equity and price contain independent information about expected cash flows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. This study focuses on international stock markets and re-examines whether the origins of the book-to-market ratio (BM), in terms of past changes in book equity and price, enhance the estimates of expected returns provided by BM alone. Examining all stocks, as well as subcategories of microcap, small, large, and all-butmicrocap stocks trading in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan, the authors find that recent changes in book equity and price are more relevant than more distant changes in enhancing estimates of expected future cash flows and expected future returns. Their tests also show that changes in book equity say much more about expected stock returns than price changes do. <b>TOPICS:</b>Global, exchanges/markets/clearinghouses, statistical methods