Voter Mobilization and Party Competition in a Volatile Electorate
以魏玛共和国为例，将投票行为的制度化分析为重复学习过程，通过微分方程模型研究温和政党支持者的党派忠诚波动，发现1930年新选民浪潮扰乱了选举模式，导致1932年选举中温和派支持转向极右翼政党。
Following a model suggested by McPhee and Smith, the institutionalization of voting behavior is analyzed as a repetitive learning process. Using the Weimar Republic as an example, volatile partisan attachments among groups of supporters of the more ideologically moderate political parties are examined. A formal model comprised of a system of four interdependent differential equations is used to characterize the aggregate voter shifts over time of various groups in the population. The results show that a large wave of new voters disrupted emerging electoral patterns in 1930. In the subsequent realigning election of July 1932, electoral support for non-Catholic moderate parties was transferred to the extreme rightist parties, notably the Nazis.