A TIP OF THE ICEBERG? THE PROBABILITY OF CATCHING CARTELS
提出一种更简洁的方法来估计卡特尔随时间变化的发现率，允许企业异质性，并应用该方法发现不到五分之一的卡特尔企业被查处。
SUMMARY Reliable estimates of crime detection probabilities could help in designing better sanctions and improve our understanding of the efficiency of law enforcement. For cartels, we only have limited knowledge on the rate at which these illegal practices are discovered. In comparison to previous works, this paper offers a more parsimonious and simple‐to‐use method to estimate time‐dependent cartel discovery rates, while allowing for heterogeneity across firms. It draws on capture–recapture methods that are frequently used in ecology to make inferences on various wildlife population characteristics. An application of this method provides evidence that less than a fifth of cartelising firms are discovered. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.