An Empirical Study of Budget-Related Predictions of Corporate Executives
基于Brunswik透镜模型，研究企业高管、经理和销售人员对《时代》杂志广告销售额的预测能力，发现线性回归模型和组合预测能提高准确性。
In this paper I report the results of a study of the decisions of actual managers in a real decision setting within the framework of Brunswik's [1952] lens model. Subjects (executives, managers, and sales personnel) provided predictions of advertising sales for Time magazine, which is an important variable in the incentive contracts of Time Inc. Unlike previous studies using the lens model in accounting, this one used (1) actual data as cues for subjects' predictions and actual outcome data for accuracy comparisons, (2) the number and type of cues which closely approximate the data set available for the actual predictions, and (3) a task which required a prediction that subjects were accustomed to making. Several previous studies (e.g., Libby [1975], Wright [1977], and Ashton [1974]) have incorporated some, but not all, of these features. Also, this is the first lens model study in a budgeting context. The results of the study indicate that subjects were generally adept at predicting advertising sales, but improved predictions were possible using a linear regression model, and by using composite predictions.