A Sensitivity Analysis of Selected Variables in Agency Valuation
基于1975年Trieschmann等人的蒙特卡洛模拟模型，分析经济与法律变化（如高利率、消费者行为改变、税法修订）对财产责任保险代理估值的影响，对保险估值从业者有用。
In a 1975 article Trieschmann, Davis, and Leverett [7] used a Monte Carlo simulation model to explore the valuation of the expirations of propertyliability insurance agencies. The model they developed was for what is normally called an In that paper such factors as lapse of policies, operating expenses, a discount rate, commission income, and income taxes were included. Since the time of their study, several major economic and legal changes have occurred that have a direct effect on the valuation of property-liability insurance agencies. From 1975 to 1984 the United States experienced a period of high nominal and real rates of interest that are unique for the twentieth century. Consumers have become more price conscious, and the cash flow underwriting philosophy during the 1980-1984 time period made commercial lines property-liability price competition even more intense. Consumers have begun to treat the product of insurance as a commodity and to shol) for a better price and coverage[3]. This shopping phenomena may have resulted in the change of insurers more often than in the past (at least that impression is often given). In addition to these economic and consumer behavior changes, there has been a major revision in tlhe Internal Revenue Service's treatment of the customer or expiration list of a property-liability insurance agency. That is, the expiration list is no longer considered an intangible asset but rather it is considered a wasting asset. Consequently, it is possible to depreciate (amortize) the expirations [Revenue Ruling 74-4561, provided you can value the expirations and calculate their useful life.[21 The expiration list is a document that contains all of an agency's customers' names, addresses, coverages, and the dates all the policies expire. This is the most critical control document in an independent agency.