Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency
通过实证研究比较管理判断预测与ARIMA系统预测，构建组合销售预测模型，并引入条件效率概念评估各预测输入对组合预测的贡献。
In an empirical study of sales forecasts, management judgment forecasts are compared with systematic forecasts (based on the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method). A composite sales forecasting model is developed which incorporates information from these different sources. In most cases forecast improvement apparently can be realized by combining multiple forecast inputs into a composite model. The concept of conditional efficiency then is introduced to evaluate the strength of an individual forecast input to the composite forecast. Upon finding the management judgment forecasts to be conditionally efficient on the basis of the composite model standard, the authors examine the management judgment forecasting task and environment in terms of the conditions which facilitate accurate management judgment predictions.