Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri‐food Import Ban
用特定要素可计算一般均衡模型模拟2014年俄罗斯对欧盟农产品进口禁令的短期影响，发现俄罗斯自身损失最大（约34亿欧元），而欧盟通过转向其他市场部分弥补了损失。
Abstract In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri‐food products from countries enforcing Ukraine‐related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short‐run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex‐post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.