On the Allocation of Treatments in Sequential Medical Trials
比较了几种分配规则在发现两种治疗中哪种成功率更高时的效果,发现序贯分配能以少量受试者成本达到与固定样本规则相近的误差概率。
Summary Several allocation rules are compared by assessing their effectiveness in discovering which of two treatments has the higher probability of success. The number of observations needed to obtain a given level of precision can be minimized by using a fixed-sample rule, but this involves too many applications of the inferior treatment. It is demonstrated that sequential allocation rules can achieve a similar pattern of error probabilities for a small fraction of the expected cost to the volunteers employed in the experiment.