Testing Alternative Econometric Models on the Existence of Advertising Threshold Effect
基于月度时间序列和横截面数据，测试消费品市场中广告阈值效应的存在，发现切换回归模型与证据一致，并估计了广告效果微弱的临界点及弹性变化。
Threshold effect of advertising has received wide attention in the marketing literature, but little formal representation of this phenomenon has been developed. On the basis of monthly time-series and cross-sectional data, the author tests for the existence of a threshold effect in a consumer good market. Alternative models are developed and estimated. A switching regression model which assumes a concave function to a cutoff point seems consistent with the evidence. The cutoff point below which advertising has little effect is estimated and the shift of advertising elasticity is assessed. The results show that advertising elasticity increases above the cutoff level, price elasticity is larger for heavily advertised premium brands than for less advertised low-price brands, and a minimum threshold level on advertising share is consistent with the theory.