Inflation Rates Implicit in Discounting Personal Injury Economic Losses
论证了在人身伤害赔偿中,使用实际折现率而不直接参考工资增长和市场利率,并不能避免预测工资增长的问题;同时指出极低或负的实际折现率不合理,可能掩盖过高的工资和价格增长预测。
This article is an attempt to show that the use of a real discount rate without direct reference to wage growth and market interest rates does not avoid the 'problem' of forecasting wage growth; furthermore, that the use of an extremely low (or zero or negative) real discount rate is unreasonable and may mask unrealistically high wage and price growth forecasts. There is virtually no dispute about the need to discount estimates of future economic losses to present value before paying compensation in cases of wrongful injury or death. This is meant to account both for expected future changes in losses (e.g., due to income growth) and for interest likely to be earned on a settlement made today. The necessary present value calculation is: