Managerial Judgment in Marketing: The Concept of Expertise
研究了营销决策中如何整合个人判断，发现通过简单外部指标识别的专家和德尔菲法能提供更准确的估计，而自评信心和人际共识则不然。
Judgment-based estimations often are used in marketing decision making and as inputs to decision calculus models. An evaluation of different approaches to integrating individual judgments is performed in the context of a marketing situation where the “true” values being estimated are known. Experts identified by a simple external measure of expertise are found likely to provide better estimates, followed by groups participating in a Delphi process. Experts identified by self-rated confidence and interpersonal group consensus are not found likely to provide better estimates than the average of the initial judgments of the members of a group.